Today's the day of the Iowa caucuses. Who will win?
The front of the field seems to be (alphabetically speaking) Dean, Edwards, Gephardt and Kerry, who are -- at least according to the news services, which are not always accurate on such matters -- in a dead heat. This is actually bad news for Dean, who, if I remember correctly, was well out in front of the pack when last seen.
Whom would I like to see win? Well, by and large I find Dean to be the candidate whose views are most in agreement with my own (a curious mix of the most radical form of liberalism with certain attitudes generally associated with social conservatism). But I don't think he could beat Bush, and, if the law won't let us hang Bush (it should!), it will at least let us send him back into the private life of a happily ignored "elder statesman". But for that to happen, he has to be beaten in the election.
Kerry, like Clark (now off bushwhacking his way through the wilds of New Hampshire), has some military credentials (a genuine war hero -- whatever that means!). Edwards, who was either in short pants or trying to figure out how to pay for his college education during the Vietnam War (could have been both -- that war lasted long enough), promises to deliver at least some of the southern states to the Democrats in the election if he is nominated; whether this is necessary or not is a question, but it would certainly be desirable. Gephardt has labor's support, but this is likely not a defining factor -- labor would, I think, support whichever of these four candidates came out ahead; they will, quite rightly, accept "anyone but Bush", even if Gephardt would be their first choice.
Dean, on the other hand, can promise to deliver only the left wing of the Democratic Party (people like myself); many centrists and southerners will find him overly radical (not to mention his various faux pas and stumbles, which do not encourage a basic faith in his competence).
Ultimately, I think I'd like to see Kerry take Iowa -- he, after all, has paid his dues. A Kerry/Edwards ticket would, all things considered, be a nice idea, or so it seems to me.
Well, a few more hours now, and then back to New Hampshire, where Clark will weigh in.
(Let me take the opportunity to remind people of the sometime existence of my paternal grandfather, George Harlow, a native-born Iowan.)